Thursday, September 06, 2007

Week One Matchups

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It’s Week One…so I have nothing to go off of other then everything I read and everything I encountered this preseason. Expect me to be kind of wrong for this week, but I’m going to be keeping track, I am aiming for 60%. That’s not that bad. For those of you not familiar with this system here’s what happens:
I take players for each position and compare them to your opponents. I use Yahoo’s projections, plus my own readings and thoughts, and a little other Fantasy website and guess what happens…I make a prediction. Sometimes I’m wrong, other times I’m right.

Nazabitches (Pisula) vs. the Nazahoes (Me)

Quarterbacks: Peytong Manning vs. Marc Bulger. Let’s be honest it’s Peyton Manning, any time he touches the ball it’s a guaranteed two to five touchdown affair and 200 plus yards. It will be interesting to see Addai running around but it shouldn’t hurt Manning’s numbers at all, especially because the Saints secondary is terrible. Marc Bulger might be one of the most underrated QBs in the league. He has veteran WRs Issac Bruce and Torry Holt, he’s got a great receiving running back and he faces a Carolina DEF that got smacked around last year, but who still have some talent. He’ll put up about 2 TDs or something, but the yardage could be significantly shorter then Peyton, just based on that Carolina DEF.
ADVANTAGE: Pisula…It’s Peyton Manning

Wide Receivers: Torry Holt and Javon Walker vs. T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Marques Colston. Okay Torry Holt’s stats are just plain crazy, not Marvin Harrison crazy but crazy enough over the past three years to merit him being a number one receiver on a great passing team. I’d be way more confident with Mike Martz in the system still but hey we’ll take what we can get. 100 yards could be a little much, but I’d see a TD and at least 85 or so. Javon Walker gets a chance to match up against the Bills DEF, he’ll have a big day for sure. Cutler will look to build on that connection with him against a very weak DEF. I’ll go for a TD and about 70 yards or so. TJ is facing the Ravens, they have the players to shut down the passing lanes all day. I think he’s in for a shock in Week One, not to say he won’t have other big weeks, because Chris Henry is out, look for a touch out of him and I’d say closer to 60-75 yards. Marques Colston is suffering from one thing…LAST YEAR!! People and defenders know who he is now. He’ll be doubled from time to time and Indy has an okay DEF. It’s a young DEF but an okay DEF none the less. Brees will at least find him once, hell I’d bet twice, especially because we all want to see a shoot out. I’ll go with 1-2 TDs and 80-100 yards.
ADVANTAGE: I really think that Holt/Walker could do some damage here. The Ravens match up is what keeps me from swinging it the other way.

Running Backs: Now this is where it gets fun. In my official opinion this is where fantasy games are won and lost. We have Steven Jackson running against the Carolina DEF, and Travis Henry vs. Buffalo, going against MJD against Tennessee and Ronnie Brown against Washington. Steven Jackson was a stud last year and this year has set a high goal for himself, he’ll be determined and he’ll hit pay dirt, and probably rush for 100 yards, and catch a few passes. Travis Henry could very easily crave up the Buffalo DEF, who are very weak right now. MJD is a back up running back, a really damn good one, and his success depends a lot on Fred Taylor this year. He’ll still have a good game, at least yardage wise, and with the TENN def looking like Swiss cheese I wouldn’t rule out a score. Now Ronnie Brown is going to have problems Week One. The Skins vs. Miami, that game is going to have DEF written all over it. Trent Green isn’t going to be able to throw the ball on the Skins good secondary, and that puts the heavy burden on Brown…but you know what I don’t think he’ll get it done either. I don’t think he’ll find pay dirt and he might not be really successful on Sunday.
ADVANTAGE: Jackson and Henry, both have huge upside this week.

TIGHT END: Chris Cooley or Todd Heap? Cooley faces that stingy Miami DEF, but might be the only worthwhile target on Sunday for passes. Heap will be one of many targets, but a favorite of McNair. Cooley had a really good preseason, Heap was okay. Both are close…I’ll favor Heap here.
ADVANTAGE: HEAP.

FLEX POSITION: I said before that Running Backs win or lose fantasy games for you. Win or lose. In the Flex position you should start a running back nine times out of then. I have chosen Willis McGahee, the Ravens ran the ball a shit load last year with Jamal Lewis and guess what…he averaged about 4 yards per carry and he sucked. Now with a dynamic runner like McGahee they could reap huge dividends. Now Plaxico Burress who JP has started in this spot has Eli Manning throwing him the ball and I really don’t know how that’s going to work yet. Plaxico has pressure to perform this season so that could drive him to bigger and better things, however until we see them I’m still on the fence about him. He is a starting WR though…so who knows.
ADVANTAGE: The starting running back is always over the starting wide out.

KICKER: Jeff Wilkins vs.Stephen Gostkowski. Wilkins and the Rams were fifth in the league points wise last year, but their DEF sucked, so I don’t think there were that many opportunities for field goals but Wilkins did have games were he had 13 points last year due to field goals and I believe he tossed a TD even, but I think those days are over. As for Gostkowski, someone had to replace Adam V, he was damn good doing it as well and he’ll be kicking for a good offense, but he is kicking in Giant Stadium.
ADVANTAGE: Wilkins is kicking indoors I believe, that always gives him the slight advantage.

DEF: Baltimore and Miami here. Pisula took Baltimore high so expectations are high. I picked Miami up on the waiver wire…could this possibly even be close. Survey says…YES. Baltimore is facing a Cincinnati team that can crave up anyone and I mean anyone. Chad Johnson is used to facing top corners and Carson Palmer is super good. Miami is facing the Skins, the Skins are a terrible team and Miami is a good DEF. There is more points to be had there then with the Ravens.
ADVANTAGE: Miami.

OVERALL: Peyton Manning is going to be more then enough to get the win I think here. It could be close, it could be very close. And if it is it’s because of the underperforming of Burress and the Running Back situation, but I think Pisula will take it.

AIDS (Microw) vs. Inches (Older Ward)

QUARTERBACKS: Tom Brady vs. McNabb. Let’s look at this…McNabb isn’t going to be 100%, and Brady has a ton of new weapons. This is a tough one here, but I think that Brady will be able to string it together. He’s going to be passing left and right this year so I’m going to go with Brady. However McNabb will perform pretty well.
ADVANTAGE: Brady.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Chad Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald vs. Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne. Okay this is some match up here…CJ is going to be a disappointment this year I think. He won’t post the yardage numbers HE wants, or that YOU want. He’ll score TDs here and there but get this…last year he had three AMAZING games, that’s what made him a stud number wise. Larry Fitz has Leinhart slinging him the ball and a weak San Fran DEF on Monday Night, so he’s a checkmate here. Steve Smith has Jake Delhomme throwing him the ball, and granted they have worked together in the past but get this…that connection is bailing. He’ll do okay though I think. Reggie Wayne is the second coming of fantasy Jesus. That’s about it. Peyton will hit him early and often, the Saints DEF is weak too.
ADVANTAGE: Ward’s guys simply because of their matchups.

RUNNING BACKS: Frank Gore and Brandon Jacobs vs. Reggie Bush and Thomas Jones. Okay Frank Gore is a bust this year according to a lot of articles, but you know what I don’t think so at all. I think he’ll be fine and dandy, maybe even double digit TDs this year, his yardage shouldn’t be that bad either. Brandon Jacobs did well last year with limited touches, can he handle the full load, we’ll see Sunday night. I think he will, he should score at least once, he won’t catch balls but he’ll get some yards. Reggie Bush is a dynamite player…he’ll score against the Colts somehow, he’ll catch some passes and he’ll score you some points. Thomas Jones is a question mark right now, the Pats DEF which he is running against will eat up anything that comes near them. So I really think that the two of Gore/Jacobs beats Bush’s Big Day.
ADVANTAGE: Microw’s Gore/Jacobs tandem.

TIGHT ENDS: Kellen Winslow vs. Gonzo. Well we know Microw loves Winslow a lot, but let’s face it Gonzo is the man when it comes to TEs. Winslow through could benefit from Charlie Frye a lot, hell he might be the only Brown to benefit from that move. Bonzo on the other hand…he’s playing the Texans. They suck, he’ll see some action. Winslow goes against the Pitt DEF, they are tough, which might be the reason Quinn isn’t behind center yet.
ADVANTAGE: Gonzo.

FLEX POISTION: Andre Johnson vs. Santonino Holmes. Andrew Johnson will get receptions, granted he won’t score a lot but he will get receptions. He gets yards too and he succeeded when Carr was behind center so Schaub could be a nice little upgrade. There are a million problems in Texans so only time will tell. Holmes has had a good preseason but I don’t think he’s a good flex option YET. He’ll get some good kick return numbers but until any of us see this brand new flex offense they run their isn’t much we can do.
ADVANTAGE: Johnson.

KICKER: Stover/Elam. I think Elam is the better choice. He might be older and he might be really old, but he can kick. Plus Denver is going to have plenty of opportunities to kick the ball. But Stover…I don’t know we could have a crazy DEF game here. It’s close though I think.
ADVANTAGE: Elam.

DEF: Philadelphia’s DEF is going against the Pack, but here’s the thing. The Pack can still hurt a team and such. Pittsburgh is going against the Browns, there is nothing they can do there except destroy. The Browns are that bad. So based on that alone…I go with the Steelers.
ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh.

OVERALL: I think Microw takes this one down because of the Running Back situation. Just my two cents.

Yellow Jackets (Lesser Ward) vs. TyranosaurasGrossman (Vito)

QUARTERBACKS: Phillip Rivers vs. Vince Young. Okay Rivers has complete 69% of his pre season passes, most of them to Vincent Jackson the developing WR, and of course he has Gates, and LT, so you can say he has a lot of targets. Quick name someone on the Titans…quicker. Okay you can’t. Vince Young has to do it himself and you know what…going against that stingy Jacksonville DEF I don’t think he can do it. Now that being said the Super Bowl that many wanted to see is taking place Rivers is taking on the Bears, so who knows what’s going to happen there. I’m going to call this one for Rivers by a hair.
ADVANTAGE: Yellow Jackets.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Harrison/Driver vs. Boldin/Henderson. Harrison and Driver are two dominant WR on teams who know how to use them. Manning to Harrison is the most over said phrase every year and tomorrow night it’ll be no different I’m going to say two TDs and a 100 yards. Driver will catch passes on a Philadelphia secondary, and he’ll probably find pay dirt, so again another dominant force. Boldin is another budding receiver, it seems that Larry Fitz always gets his name in front though. The best strategy with those two is to get both, that way your covered, but anyway you should get some receptions from him and with that weak San Fran team you could get a TD as well. All depends on Matty L. Devery Henderson, who I was high on did sit out two preseason games but he’s still a go, he’ll really make a differnce I think this year. He’s got speed, and he’s playing opposite Colston, so he should see the ball in the shootout tom night.
ADVANTAGE: Yellow Jackets.

RUNNING BACKS: Alexander/Addai vs. Westbrook/Maroney. Let’s take a look at this…Westbrook is one of the most dynamic running backs in our points system. He’ll catch balls, he’ll run balls, but the thing that harpers him is McNabb, but you know what I think he’ll have a very good day against the Packers. Now let’s look at Addai. Addai is freaking amazing, he can do it all. He can dunk it, he can dip it, he can catch it, he had all those yards last year and never started a game. This year he will be untouchable. He’ll rush very well against those pesky Saints, WHO DAT! WHO DAT! Alexander will have an okay season this year, he’s an elite running back. But I don’t like the Tampa Bay matchup personally. Lawrence Maroney is one of those running backs that I don’t feel yet. You know what I think he’s injury prone and I think the Patriots are too much of a passing team, sure he’ll score like ten TDs…but that’s just okay. Overall I think the T-Rexs have the better overall match up.
ADVANTAGE: TyranosaurasGrossman

TIGHT END: Vernon Davis from MD vs. Dallas Clark. Well here’s the thing the Colts have drafted Dallas Clark part two this past draft. Another quick speedy tight end so we’ll see how Dallas Clark is used this year esp. with the new slot WR they have. Vernon Davis was on his way to a monster season last year and guess what happened, he got hurt. This season with Alex Smith, and Frank Gore and the rebuilding in San Fran he could have that break out season. I think the Arizona matchup for a tight end is better, the Saints have decent LBs so we’ll see what happens. I think Vernon will get more catches then Clark, which in the scoring system gives him the edge.
ADVANTAGE: TyranosaurasGrossman

FLEX POSITION: Calvin Johnson vs. Santana Moss for the flex. Input Running Backs better then WRs rant here. Okay based on this right now I have to give almost a dead even heat here. First thing both Johnson and Moss are facing tight defenses. The Raiders have a good DEF, and so does the Fins. Santana Moss gets the nod here simply because he is the veteran and the Number One receiver. That being said Calvin Johnson will be a stud, but not week one. I feel like he might get a TD though, I don’t know about Moss, but he’ll have catches.
ADVANTAGE: Yellow Jackets.

KICKER: Okay let’s see this here. First Hanson is kicking at Oakland…I don’t know about that match up, but the DEF will hold the Detroit OFF in check. Mike Nugent with the Jets is about the same situation. I’d call this a push.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

DEFENSE: Denver’s DEF going against the Buffalo OFF vs. New England DEF against the Jets OFF. Okay this is a hands down decision here…New England. Denver should have a nice game though, but New England is just intense.
ADVANTAGE: Yellow Jackets

OVERALL: I think the Yellow Jackets will take this.

Vick’s My Dog Catcher (McLeish) vs. Vicksmart (Justin)

QUARTERBACK: Carson Palmer vs. Drew Brees. Both of these QBs are amazing. But Brees will have the better Week One. The Colt’s DEF while just OK, isn’t all that great and everyone expects a shoot out like you wouldn’t believe. I’m going Brees Week One, plus Palmer is facing that tough Baltimore DEF.
ADVANTAGE: Vicksmart.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Lee Evans and Chris Chambers vs. Terrell Owens and Roy Williams. Let’s be honest here Lee Evans might be the best kept secret in the NFL, JP Lossman will won’t to get him the ball early and often. He’ll see plenty of action Sunday, just watch out for that Denver corner back system. Chris Chambers however is just lame; he hasn’t translated enough since last season and into this preseason. Hopefully Trent Green will fix that. Terrell Owens, you know what, breakout year this year. Hopefully he can keep that off the field shit down. The Giants won’t be able to contain him, Romo will get him the ball. As for Roy Williams with that Radiers DEF, I don’t know. He is good but I wouldn’t see that much to him, guess what though he’ll do more then Chambers.
ADVANTAGE: Vicksmart.

RUNNING BACKS: LT and Fast Willie vs. LJ and Rudi J. Okay LT is a lock to do anything and everything, sure the Bears face him Week One but guess what, it doesn’t matter…he’ll still score in someway. He’ll throw the ball, he’ll run the ball, he’ll catch the ball. He’ll score, they have him under 20 points in the Yahoo! System, I’ll give him more then their prediction I give him around 20. Fast Willie plays Cleveland and to be honest I’m not sure what to think of the Steelers this year, with that Flex offense. He’ll have an okay day though. LJ is supposed to be limited early in the season so I don’t like his match up, but Rudi J might be the player of the week, because in order to have any success at all against the Ravens they’ll have to get him going and he’s been super consistent over the past three years.
ADVANTAGE: LT and Vick Is…

TIGHT END: Antonio Gates vs. Jeremy Shockey. Okay two good TEs but guess what Gates out weights Shockey no matter how you slice it. He’ll find some creaks in the Bears DEF and get some catches I could also see a TD cause Norv Turner loves QBs. Shockey is going against the Cowboys and will get some good catches but I think Gates will be better this week.
ADVANTAGE: Gates and Vick Is…

FLEX POSITION: Reggie Brown vs. Darrell Jackson. I like Brown here simply because of the DEF matchup. The Cardinals actually played good DEF last year but that’s not saying there are not points to be had. I just think Brown will be thrown to more and that the GB DEF is poor so they’ll be more chances for big plays.
ADVANTAGE: Vick Is…

KICKER: Vinatieri is kicking inside and Gould is kicking with the Bears. You know what…I’m going with Gould. The Bears will stall and he can nail kicks from almost anyway on the field, so that makes him a little better in my mind. Vinateri will be fine though.
ADVANTAGE: Vicksmart.

DEF: San Diego vs. Chicago. Funny thing is they play one another. I think Chicago has the better upside like always, simply because of that return game. Devin Hester watch out.
ADVANTAGE: Vicksmart

OVERALL: LT will put Justin in a hole he cant climb out of.
ADVANTAGE: Vick’s My Dogcatcher

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I read/appreciate the updates. Besides saying that you pose the question "guess what?" a few dozen times, I enjoy reading the in-depth analysis.

8:20 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

Thanks for the updates.

8:08 AM  

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