Fact OR Fiction with Mike and J
McLeish and I contributed to the FIRST POST OF THE SEASON. A pre-Draft edition of FACT OR FICTION. See you all tonight!!
1. Drew Brees will have a better season then Tom Brady.
MIKE: FICTION: I was hesitant to initially write fiction; however, it's clearly evident that a smart man should not bet against Tom Brady. The only intelligent argument against Brady is that he may sit out a week towards the end of the season, but a healthy Brady is the best qb in all of fantasy football. Moss and Welker and great receivers and the Patriots should be passing an extensive amount, especially in the beginning of games. Although Brees put up great numbers last year and has a healthy Colston, he is just not better than Tom Brady.
J: FACT: When drafting early in fantasy football you like to have picks that you know will produce, some call them safe picks. I call them smart picks. My smart pick this year at the end of the first/beginning of the second (according to ADP) is Drew Brees. No Quarterback in the history of football has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and at least 26 TDs in three straight seasons, except Mr. Brees. In 40 of his 48 games that he has played in his career he’s thrown for at least 200 yards. Our league offers a performance bonus for eclipsing the 200/300/400 mark...that’s where Brees earns his keep. Mark it down...Brees over Brady.
Score: 0 for 1.
2. RB/RB Strategy in Fantasy Drafts is Over.
MIKE: FACT: I wouldn't say that in all fantasy drafts, it's over, but I would say that in our league, it is indeed over. Considering the league scoring system has dramatically changed this year, I would say that WR's and QB's are just as valuable as a running back. Brady, Manning, and Brees should all go in the first two rounds along with Fitzgerald, Andrew Johnson, and Randy Moss. These players will impact your team much more, especially considering you can hold off and get similar numbers from a Brandon Jacobs or a Frank Gore in the 4th or 5th round when compared to a few of the 1st and second round round RB's.
J: FACT: I think the days of going Running Back/Running Back are officially over. Too many teams now employee the RBBC (Running Back By Committee) approach. I could poke numerous holes in any of the top ten or so Running Backs, and the same goes with Wideouts. As I said earlier in the first few rounds of a draft you should look for stable, predictable players. I mean there is a reason Peyton Manning goes higher then his little brother. I know Manning will fetch over 4,000 yards and over 30 TDs. You need to know that your first round pick will deliver like a first round pick, running backs simply cannot promise that anymore. The best draft strategy is “talent first”. Draft the best player available and sort it all out later.
Score: 1 for 2
3. Brett Favre helps the value of Adrian Peterson.
MIKE: FICTION: Going from Tavaris Jackson to Brett Favre makes the Vikings a much better team. Brett Favre will take his usual chances downfield to Bernard Berrien, thus creating less opportunities for Adrian Peterson. I will concede the fact that the Vikings will move down the field better because of Favre, but Favre's comfort in his Wrangler Jeans will not save him from having 3 interception games. Therefore, Adrian Peterson will take a hit, although will still put up great numbers.
J: FICTION: People will point to the Thomas Jones campaign of last year and state that AP will have a similar year, but that is just a cold hard untruth. Adrian has his own problems (fumbles, injury problems and Chester Taylor) the last thing he needs is the Anti-Fountain of Youth Brett Favre behind center. Favre is selfish player and will attempt to play gun slinger for another year. He’ll throw picks left and right, and pull off some amazing plays to boot. However one thing Favre hasn’t really done ever in his career is hand the ball off. I think Favre takes snaps AWAY from Peterson, thus overall hurting his fantasy value a bit.
Score: 2 for 3.
4. Jay Cutler helps the value of Matt Forte.
MIKE: FACT: Judging from training camp notes and preseason games, it is obvious that Forte will get his carries as part of the Bears offensive game plan. In a struggling offense last year, the Bears will finally have a QB that can drive the ball downfield, causing Forte to get more red-zone touches. Furthermore, the Bears have indicated that Forte will also get the ball through the air, with the possibility of him getting more receptions than his RB league leading 63 in 2008.
J: FACT: Although I don’t see him leading the RB’s in receptions again this year Cutler when on is one of the best QB’s in the league. He will have defenses on their heels for the majority of the season. My concern comes in the fact that the Bears still have no main threat in the receiving corps. Therefore defenses could stack the box against Forte. Forte (our of Tulane) will still produce in an upper tier level. He shows quickness and vision, two things that every elite back needs. He’ll score double digit TD’s and go over or about 1500 yards.
Score: 3 for 4.
5. Brandon Marshall is undraftable?
MIKE: FICTION: I cannot believe that this is even a question, to be honest. I think every manager would not hesitate to draft Marshall in the late rounds if given the opportunity. The late rounds is where a number of teams will take chances and hope that Marshall backs off the trade talk or is not sidelined for a lingering hip injury. Marshall has showed success in the past and an intelligent person can not consider him undraftable, if it gets to a later round. The real question here is how early will he go. To be concise, any manager that considers Brandon Marshall undraftable probably should not be alive.
J: FICTION: I am so low I’m underground on Marshall this year. As a matter of fact Forgetting Brandon Marshall should be my draft strategy. However if you can get him low in a draft in the double digits rounds he could be a steal. The facts are that he has a hip issue, he doesn’t know the playbook and he wants a trade. Well I doubt he sits out the entire year. I think he plays, and how many plays do you need to know...his playbooks is this: run, grab the ball, score. He’s TO-lite really but he could still help you. If you draft him any higher then the 10-12th round you are a stone cold fool. Let’s face it people, they left him in Denver when they went to their preseason game, that’s not a ringing endorsement.
Score: 4 for 5.
6. LT is a TOP FIVE pick
J: FICTION: I do not think LT will go in the top five in almost any draft. That being said I think he will put up top teir running back numbers. It says a lot about a player when his “worst” season he still eclipsed 1,130 yards or so. That’s impressive. Obvisouly Sproles takes carries away from him but this year LT will be out to prove he is still the bulldozer we know he can be. However he does not go in the top five picks.
MIKE: FACT: I have LT right around the fifth spot. I know how some people would say that you shouldn't take a risk in the first round, but LT could be a player that wins you a championship. Although most people were pretty down on LT as of last year, his numbers were suprisingly strong, with 52 receptions and 11 rushing touchdowns. I honestly believe that this is the year where the Chargers offense becomes one of the best in the NFL, producing more TD's for LT than a few of the RB's drafted before him.
Score: 5 for 6.
7. Megatron is a Number Three WR
J: FACT: Without a doubt a no brainer. I have him as the second overall WR this year right after Andre Johnson. That’s right neither Fitzy or Moss is in my top two, Fitz falls at three. 78 receptions, 1,331 and 12 tds and that’s with NO ONE throwing him the ball. Seriously the Lions suck at QB. Stafford might not even see playing time till half way through the year. It doesn’t matter who throws it Megatron will catch it and he’ll do it with style. He’s a legit top tier wideout if only for the fact that the Lions consistently play from behind each and every year. Draft Johnson and be happy!
MIKE: FICTION: As much as I like Calvin Johnson, there is more to like in Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald. With Brady throwing, Moss could put up his numbers from 2007. Johnson silently led the league in receptions and receiving yards last year. The main question here is Fitzgerald versus Calvin. I give the nod to Fitz because of his ability to catch the jump ball that Kurt Warner will continuously throw up this year. Furthermore, nobody knows how Stafford will work out for the Lions, making this a fiction.
Score: 5 for 7
8. Steve Slaton goes in the second round
J: FACT: I have Slaton right there as one of I think the top SIX-EIGHT running backs in the league this year. I believe Slaton came to my team via waivers last year and I was very glad he did. You always root for a local product...1,282 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie is an amazing line. Factor in a “healthy” Matt Schab and Slaton will reap the reward. Mix in 50 receptions (18 less then league leader Forte) and Slaton becomes Forte-lite, available a little later and I think you’re getting around the same numbers. Slaton should go early second round (but probably not to me)
MIKE: FACT: Slaton put up some ridiculous numbers for a rookie, and there is reason to believe that his numbers will only improve this year. In a PPR league, Slaton is "slated" to get a large number of receptions. Also, he will still add to his 9 TD's from last year and 1282 yards. Looks like Slaton should be a steal in the late second round as long as the rest of the league goes QB and WR happy. The only concern would be a sophomore struggle, but he is off to a good umm... slate in preseason and training camp.
Score: 6 for 8.
9. Is Aaron Rodgers the 4th Best QB four our Draft.
J: FACT: Finally removed from “that other guy’s” shadow Aaron Rodgers posted 28 TDs and 4,038 yards, those numbers aren’t exactly easy to come by. He also added 4 rushing TDs. So that’s 32 TDs...that’s pretty impressive. With TO finally out of Dallas I think Rodgers jumps Romo on any type of league, most certainly ours. Donald Driver, Greg Jennings are still around and are still very good. Also look for a healthy Ryan Grant to take some pressure off the passing game this time around leading to hopefully a few more TD throws for good old Aaron. I think he’s easily the fourth best, I don’t know if he’ll picked like that or not.
MIKE: FICTION: This debate basically hinges on the battle between Rodgers and Rivers. Brady, Manning, and Brees are all better than Rodgers, so the battle for the 4th best QB is down to two players. As previously mentioned, I believe that this is the year for the Chargers offense to once again dominate. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates will help Rivers, along with LT getting a number of receptions, and turning them into big gains. On the other hand, Greg Jennings is the main weapon for Rodgers. Donald Driver is another weapon for Rodgers, but is only an OK target. So, Rivers looks to me to be the next best QB, edging out Rodgers.
Score: 6 for 9.
10. Pierre Thomas used to be underrated, but now is liked by so many people for being underrated, that he is actually overrated
J: FACT: Nothing angers me more then when someone let’s the cat out of the bag about a sleeper that he doesn’t become a sleeper anymore. The beauty of the sleeper is that no one knows. For example: Bobby Engram out of the slot this year for Kanas City in a spread offense will put up great numbers. He’s a sleeper because people forgot where he plays and don’t really know who he is. Pierre Thomas is not a sleeper. He goes in the second/third round, those people can’t be underrated, your’re using a top 15-25 pick on them!
MIKE: FICTION: Even though Pierre Thomas is loved by just about every fantasy guru that you know, he still deserves to be where he is ranked by these guys. Thomas will be put into an offense where he can excel and run up a scoreboard, with Brees leading him into the Red Zone more often than not. I think Pierre Thomas needs to go in the early third round. Don't let anyone ever tell you that a third rounder can't be underrated. These players could play like first rounders, thus strangely ensuring the fact that Thomas is still underrated, even though we're talking about him so much. My head hurts.
FINAL SCORE: 6 for 10.
1. Drew Brees will have a better season then Tom Brady.
MIKE: FICTION: I was hesitant to initially write fiction; however, it's clearly evident that a smart man should not bet against Tom Brady. The only intelligent argument against Brady is that he may sit out a week towards the end of the season, but a healthy Brady is the best qb in all of fantasy football. Moss and Welker and great receivers and the Patriots should be passing an extensive amount, especially in the beginning of games. Although Brees put up great numbers last year and has a healthy Colston, he is just not better than Tom Brady.
J: FACT: When drafting early in fantasy football you like to have picks that you know will produce, some call them safe picks. I call them smart picks. My smart pick this year at the end of the first/beginning of the second (according to ADP) is Drew Brees. No Quarterback in the history of football has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and at least 26 TDs in three straight seasons, except Mr. Brees. In 40 of his 48 games that he has played in his career he’s thrown for at least 200 yards. Our league offers a performance bonus for eclipsing the 200/300/400 mark...that’s where Brees earns his keep. Mark it down...Brees over Brady.
Score: 0 for 1.
2. RB/RB Strategy in Fantasy Drafts is Over.
MIKE: FACT: I wouldn't say that in all fantasy drafts, it's over, but I would say that in our league, it is indeed over. Considering the league scoring system has dramatically changed this year, I would say that WR's and QB's are just as valuable as a running back. Brady, Manning, and Brees should all go in the first two rounds along with Fitzgerald, Andrew Johnson, and Randy Moss. These players will impact your team much more, especially considering you can hold off and get similar numbers from a Brandon Jacobs or a Frank Gore in the 4th or 5th round when compared to a few of the 1st and second round round RB's.
J: FACT: I think the days of going Running Back/Running Back are officially over. Too many teams now employee the RBBC (Running Back By Committee) approach. I could poke numerous holes in any of the top ten or so Running Backs, and the same goes with Wideouts. As I said earlier in the first few rounds of a draft you should look for stable, predictable players. I mean there is a reason Peyton Manning goes higher then his little brother. I know Manning will fetch over 4,000 yards and over 30 TDs. You need to know that your first round pick will deliver like a first round pick, running backs simply cannot promise that anymore. The best draft strategy is “talent first”. Draft the best player available and sort it all out later.
Score: 1 for 2
3. Brett Favre helps the value of Adrian Peterson.
MIKE: FICTION: Going from Tavaris Jackson to Brett Favre makes the Vikings a much better team. Brett Favre will take his usual chances downfield to Bernard Berrien, thus creating less opportunities for Adrian Peterson. I will concede the fact that the Vikings will move down the field better because of Favre, but Favre's comfort in his Wrangler Jeans will not save him from having 3 interception games. Therefore, Adrian Peterson will take a hit, although will still put up great numbers.
J: FICTION: People will point to the Thomas Jones campaign of last year and state that AP will have a similar year, but that is just a cold hard untruth. Adrian has his own problems (fumbles, injury problems and Chester Taylor) the last thing he needs is the Anti-Fountain of Youth Brett Favre behind center. Favre is selfish player and will attempt to play gun slinger for another year. He’ll throw picks left and right, and pull off some amazing plays to boot. However one thing Favre hasn’t really done ever in his career is hand the ball off. I think Favre takes snaps AWAY from Peterson, thus overall hurting his fantasy value a bit.
Score: 2 for 3.
4. Jay Cutler helps the value of Matt Forte.
MIKE: FACT: Judging from training camp notes and preseason games, it is obvious that Forte will get his carries as part of the Bears offensive game plan. In a struggling offense last year, the Bears will finally have a QB that can drive the ball downfield, causing Forte to get more red-zone touches. Furthermore, the Bears have indicated that Forte will also get the ball through the air, with the possibility of him getting more receptions than his RB league leading 63 in 2008.
J: FACT: Although I don’t see him leading the RB’s in receptions again this year Cutler when on is one of the best QB’s in the league. He will have defenses on their heels for the majority of the season. My concern comes in the fact that the Bears still have no main threat in the receiving corps. Therefore defenses could stack the box against Forte. Forte (our of Tulane) will still produce in an upper tier level. He shows quickness and vision, two things that every elite back needs. He’ll score double digit TD’s and go over or about 1500 yards.
Score: 3 for 4.
5. Brandon Marshall is undraftable?
MIKE: FICTION: I cannot believe that this is even a question, to be honest. I think every manager would not hesitate to draft Marshall in the late rounds if given the opportunity. The late rounds is where a number of teams will take chances and hope that Marshall backs off the trade talk or is not sidelined for a lingering hip injury. Marshall has showed success in the past and an intelligent person can not consider him undraftable, if it gets to a later round. The real question here is how early will he go. To be concise, any manager that considers Brandon Marshall undraftable probably should not be alive.
J: FICTION: I am so low I’m underground on Marshall this year. As a matter of fact Forgetting Brandon Marshall should be my draft strategy. However if you can get him low in a draft in the double digits rounds he could be a steal. The facts are that he has a hip issue, he doesn’t know the playbook and he wants a trade. Well I doubt he sits out the entire year. I think he plays, and how many plays do you need to know...his playbooks is this: run, grab the ball, score. He’s TO-lite really but he could still help you. If you draft him any higher then the 10-12th round you are a stone cold fool. Let’s face it people, they left him in Denver when they went to their preseason game, that’s not a ringing endorsement.
Score: 4 for 5.
6. LT is a TOP FIVE pick
J: FICTION: I do not think LT will go in the top five in almost any draft. That being said I think he will put up top teir running back numbers. It says a lot about a player when his “worst” season he still eclipsed 1,130 yards or so. That’s impressive. Obvisouly Sproles takes carries away from him but this year LT will be out to prove he is still the bulldozer we know he can be. However he does not go in the top five picks.
MIKE: FACT: I have LT right around the fifth spot. I know how some people would say that you shouldn't take a risk in the first round, but LT could be a player that wins you a championship. Although most people were pretty down on LT as of last year, his numbers were suprisingly strong, with 52 receptions and 11 rushing touchdowns. I honestly believe that this is the year where the Chargers offense becomes one of the best in the NFL, producing more TD's for LT than a few of the RB's drafted before him.
Score: 5 for 6.
7. Megatron is a Number Three WR
J: FACT: Without a doubt a no brainer. I have him as the second overall WR this year right after Andre Johnson. That’s right neither Fitzy or Moss is in my top two, Fitz falls at three. 78 receptions, 1,331 and 12 tds and that’s with NO ONE throwing him the ball. Seriously the Lions suck at QB. Stafford might not even see playing time till half way through the year. It doesn’t matter who throws it Megatron will catch it and he’ll do it with style. He’s a legit top tier wideout if only for the fact that the Lions consistently play from behind each and every year. Draft Johnson and be happy!
MIKE: FICTION: As much as I like Calvin Johnson, there is more to like in Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald. With Brady throwing, Moss could put up his numbers from 2007. Johnson silently led the league in receptions and receiving yards last year. The main question here is Fitzgerald versus Calvin. I give the nod to Fitz because of his ability to catch the jump ball that Kurt Warner will continuously throw up this year. Furthermore, nobody knows how Stafford will work out for the Lions, making this a fiction.
Score: 5 for 7
8. Steve Slaton goes in the second round
J: FACT: I have Slaton right there as one of I think the top SIX-EIGHT running backs in the league this year. I believe Slaton came to my team via waivers last year and I was very glad he did. You always root for a local product...1,282 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie is an amazing line. Factor in a “healthy” Matt Schab and Slaton will reap the reward. Mix in 50 receptions (18 less then league leader Forte) and Slaton becomes Forte-lite, available a little later and I think you’re getting around the same numbers. Slaton should go early second round (but probably not to me)
MIKE: FACT: Slaton put up some ridiculous numbers for a rookie, and there is reason to believe that his numbers will only improve this year. In a PPR league, Slaton is "slated" to get a large number of receptions. Also, he will still add to his 9 TD's from last year and 1282 yards. Looks like Slaton should be a steal in the late second round as long as the rest of the league goes QB and WR happy. The only concern would be a sophomore struggle, but he is off to a good umm... slate in preseason and training camp.
Score: 6 for 8.
9. Is Aaron Rodgers the 4th Best QB four our Draft.
J: FACT: Finally removed from “that other guy’s” shadow Aaron Rodgers posted 28 TDs and 4,038 yards, those numbers aren’t exactly easy to come by. He also added 4 rushing TDs. So that’s 32 TDs...that’s pretty impressive. With TO finally out of Dallas I think Rodgers jumps Romo on any type of league, most certainly ours. Donald Driver, Greg Jennings are still around and are still very good. Also look for a healthy Ryan Grant to take some pressure off the passing game this time around leading to hopefully a few more TD throws for good old Aaron. I think he’s easily the fourth best, I don’t know if he’ll picked like that or not.
MIKE: FICTION: This debate basically hinges on the battle between Rodgers and Rivers. Brady, Manning, and Brees are all better than Rodgers, so the battle for the 4th best QB is down to two players. As previously mentioned, I believe that this is the year for the Chargers offense to once again dominate. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates will help Rivers, along with LT getting a number of receptions, and turning them into big gains. On the other hand, Greg Jennings is the main weapon for Rodgers. Donald Driver is another weapon for Rodgers, but is only an OK target. So, Rivers looks to me to be the next best QB, edging out Rodgers.
Score: 6 for 9.
10. Pierre Thomas used to be underrated, but now is liked by so many people for being underrated, that he is actually overrated
J: FACT: Nothing angers me more then when someone let’s the cat out of the bag about a sleeper that he doesn’t become a sleeper anymore. The beauty of the sleeper is that no one knows. For example: Bobby Engram out of the slot this year for Kanas City in a spread offense will put up great numbers. He’s a sleeper because people forgot where he plays and don’t really know who he is. Pierre Thomas is not a sleeper. He goes in the second/third round, those people can’t be underrated, your’re using a top 15-25 pick on them!
MIKE: FICTION: Even though Pierre Thomas is loved by just about every fantasy guru that you know, he still deserves to be where he is ranked by these guys. Thomas will be put into an offense where he can excel and run up a scoreboard, with Brees leading him into the Red Zone more often than not. I think Pierre Thomas needs to go in the early third round. Don't let anyone ever tell you that a third rounder can't be underrated. These players could play like first rounders, thus strangely ensuring the fact that Thomas is still underrated, even though we're talking about him so much. My head hurts.
FINAL SCORE: 6 for 10.
posted by Jason M. at 12:06 PM
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